The macro calendar: what is published and what of it matters
· beginner
Automated material · TradeAlmanac editorial deskDraft prepared by a language model from our stored data; not reviewed by an editor.
An economic calendar contains dozens of releases a month. Reacting to all of them is impossible and unnecessary: most arrive already priced in.
What genuinely moves the market
Rate decisions and the statements around them. This is the only event where the regulator communicates an intention rather than a fact.
Inflation. It is the main input into the rate decision, so a price index release trades as a prediction of the next meeting.
Data that diverges sharply from expectations. The divergence, not the level: the expected figure is already in the price.
What rarely moves it
GDP — released late and heavily revised: GDP: what the number says and what it does not. Employment and industrial production — they act indirectly, through rate expectations.
The Russian specifics
The balance of payments and foreign trade data carry more weight for the rouble than they would in economies with a different export structure. The details: The balance of payments: where the rouble exchange rate comes from.
The fiscal rule determines how oil and gas revenue reaches the exchange rate — The fiscal rule: why the state sets part of its revenue aside.
How to use it
Do not trade the release. A private investor's reaction time is knowingly worse, and the move in the first seconds often reverses.
Use the calendar as context: understanding why the market moved is more useful than trying to move before it. A news feed tied to securities — {{cta:section=news}}
Draft prepared by a language model from our stored data; not reviewed by an editor.
Model: claude-opus-5
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