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The decision will be announced on 23/10/2026 at 13:30 Moscow time.
This meeting comes with a forecast: alongside the decision the Bank of Russia publishes its updated medium-term forecast.
Estimate as of 10/10/2026
| Outcome | Rate | ProbabilityProbability |
|---|---|---|
| hold | 14.00 % | 68 % |
| cut | 13.75 % | 32 % |
statistics of past meetings, data up to the close on 02/10/2026
MOEX Russia Index. Five trading days after the decision: −0.87% on average (95% confidence interval −2.01% to +0.26%), up in 46% of cases. Meetings in the sample: 57, since 2020. The difference from ordinary days is not statistically significant.
Government bond index. Five trading days after the decision: −0.20% on average (95% confidence interval −0.80% to +0.41%), up in 49% of cases. Meetings in the sample: 57, since 2020. The difference from ordinary days is not statistically significant.
This is a record of past meetings, not a forecast.
| Window | Mean return over the window, % | Share of rises, % | Observations | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOEX Russia Index |
Sources: Bank of Russia, Moscow Exchange. Public releases.
| 5 trading days before the decision |
| +0.08 % |
| 51 % |
| 57 |
| Decision day | < 0.01 % | 44 % | 57 |
| 5 trading days after the decision | −0.87 % | 46 % | 57 |
| Government bond index | 5 trading days before the decision | +0.04 % | 65 % | 57 |
|---|
| Decision day | −0.06 % | 53 % | 57 |
| 5 trading days after the decision | −0.20 % | 49 % | 57 |