Fair futures price
The price at which holding the contract and holding the underlying asset are equally attractive.
Formula
S is the spot price, r the risk-free rate, q the yield of the asset itself (dividends or coupon), t the time to expiry in years.
How to read the number
The gap between the market price and the fair one shows what the market is paying extra for: access to the asset without the full cash, or protection against its scarcity.
When the metric lies
Also known as: theoretical futures price